The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall

I first bought this book in 2007 or 2008, used it extensively as a reference, and market it up sufficiently that this is now my third copy (each other copy has been borrowed...). While some of Ian Bremmer's trends are not universal, and we have identified multiple exceptions, the general concept is pretty solid. The book is an easy read with easily comprehended examples and storylines. This is a great book with a different perspective on transitions than are typically shared. Reading the piece ensures one walks away with understanding that transitions are rarely smooth - moving from autocratic leadership to democratic or open leadership involves an intense learning curve, not only for the government but also for the population and law enforcement. If you're interested, professionally or casually, in understanding why areas struggle to remain peaceful during government transitions or policy changes, this is a good read.

I had really high expectations for this book based on the summary and the reviews but finished it with a feeling that can be described as "blah." The author is definitely smart and he has a good writing style that is very accessible. However, the theory and the argument is unfocused at best. While I learned a little history, I'm still wondering really the "so what?" from the book. The author merely makes a statement about how he sees countries on a very limited framework. Even when he doesn't go into a historical tangent and even when he doesn't try to force a country into his own little graph, he fails to make the connection as to why this information is useful. Sure, he gives some broad policy suggestions which I find humorous in their simplicity, but other than that he doesn't bring his 'theory' into a logical package which can be used as a predictive tool or anything useful to well, anyone. Maybe he was pressured to turn his thoughts into the "Freakonomics of international relations" or however the review went (leaving aside the obvious criticisms from that analogy) and turned what could've been a useful idea into something that is easier to digest but lacking in substance. Again, I did learn some things and it is valuable to learn how other people see things (even if it is unfocused), but overall this book left me wanting. Would I recommend it? If you want just some interesting reading that is just easy, then sure... if you're looking to get something from it and are hoping to read a legit theory, then no, I would definitely not recommend it.

Although the book has got a bit dated, however that should not stop one from still reading this. Ian has brought out some great trends to watch out for while analysing a country. This book is highly recommended for those who are investing in various countries.I like the recommendation given by Ian on handling North Korea, although it is going to be difficult to carry out the same, which has also been outlined by Ian. Although Kim Jong Il is no more and his son has taken over (as was correctly identified by Ian in the Cuba case) , however, it still remains on the shorter end of the J curve , with all the insulations from external wold. However, it looks seemingly poised to slip down the curve.Ian's analysis of Russia and China is quite spot on and gives a good insights. Most of these have been encountered by us during various interactions. China's dilemma is growing by the day. The recent events of Hong Kong is quite expected, but what is more concerning is the declining growth rates.The write up on Saudi Arabia is also interesting, especially in light of the falling oil prices. Lets wait and watch.I will keenly look forward to the next edition of this book from Ian

The author simplifies national progress in terms of openness and stability. This cuts through massive amounts of data and allows the reader to see the dynamics clearly, making sense of international challenges such as terrorism, authoritarian rule and emerging markets.

The unpredictability and complexity of human behavior have always made the discipline of Political Science more of an art than a science. This book does not change this statement, but it does offer a simple, but elegant framework for interpreting the fate of nation states. Ian Bremmer suggests that a simple graph in which the y-axis (vertical) represents levels of stable governance and the x-axis (horizontal) represents degrees of openness to out side influences can be used to classify and compare all of the nation states of the world. He also postulates that if all nation states are plotted onto the graph they will describe a "J" shaped curve. Bremmer then backs his claim up with specific examples of countries which he believes illustrate his argument. He does a good job and has convinced, at least this reviewer, that he has developed a very useful tool for commercial risk management and for government policy makers.Bremmer makes abundantly clear that stable governance is not in itself a good thing, but simply that the governing persons or institutions have remained unchanged for a period of time. In the same way, he sees `openness' that is the willingness of a country to embrace globalization including international trade and communications as a mixed blessing in that outside influences in some countries could produce high levels of political instability. In the course of doing case studies to support his concept, Bremmer provides some particularly insightful thoughts on Russia and China which demonstrate he has indeed thought about this concept very carefully.The "J" curve graph is undoubtedly a useful tool especially for determining the levels and kinds of risks involved in international capital investment, joint ventures, and overseas manufacturing. It is also one of the tools that the makers of foreign policy should apply to their arcane business. Still this book is a long way from being the definitive concept for understanding the incredibly complex and dynamic phenomenon of Globalization. It is one more piece, all be it an important piece, in a really hard jigsaw puzzle.

Excellent.

It is a best selling book to me. Very nice to read it